Ontario’s Commercial Construction Boom: Thriving Amid Tariff Challenges & Economic Shifts
This is a map of Canada by province and territory, showing the month-to-month percentage changes for investment in non-residential building construction. Green arrows pointing upward represent an increase, while red arrows pointing downward represent a decrease.
Ontario’s commercial construction sector demonstrated remarkable strength in early 2025, exhibiting unexpected resilience and growth despite prevailing economic uncertainties. Investment in building construction reached a significant $22.1 billion in January 2025, with Mississauga emerging as a key center of this activity. This robust performance occurred against a backdrop of potential headwinds, including the looming threat of tariffs, ongoing labor shortages, and the lingering effects of interest rate volatility. The primary drivers behind this boom include sustained population growth, a dominant non-residential sector fueled by industrial and institutional projects, and a rebounding residential market characterized by a surge in multi-family construction. Data-backed analysis reveals continued growth in real terms, adjusted for inflation, and a generally positive economic outlook for Ontario in 2025. However, the sector faces persistent challenges that require strategic navigation. By understanding the key drivers and proactively addressing the hurdles, stakeholders can capitalize on the substantial opportunities present in Ontario's dynamic commercial construction landscape.
I. The State of Ontario's Construction Sector: A Powerhouse of Growth
The construction industry in Ontario entered 2025 with considerable momentum. Total investment in building construction across the province reached $22.1 billion in January 2025 [1]. This figure signifies the substantial capital being deployed in the development of new structures and the expansion of existing ones. The sector experienced a notable increase of 1.8% on a monthly basis, indicating a recent acceleration in activity. Furthermore, when compared to January 2024, the investment represents a significant annual surge of 5.7% [1]. This level of financial commitment and growth underscores the vital role the construction sector plays in the overall Ontario economy. The fact that this expansion is occurring during a period marked by potential economic instability suggests fundamental underlying strengths within the market, driving demand for construction services and projects.
While the entire construction sector in Ontario is demonstrating growth, a closer examination reveals differing trends between its key components. The commercial sector is a significant contributor to the overall positive performance. Simultaneously, the residential market presents a more nuanced picture. Investment in multi-family residential construction in Ontario witnessed a substantial increase of $421 million in January 2025 [1]. This surge in the development of higher-density housing options appears to be offsetting a slight dip observed in the single-family housing segment. This internal dynamic within the residential sector likely reflects a response to factors such as housing affordability challenges and ongoing provincial initiatives aimed at increasing housing supply through more efficient land utilization and higher-density developments. This shift in residential construction patterns could also have indirect implications for commercial development, as denser residential areas often necessitate the creation of supporting commercial infrastructure to serve the needs of the growing local population.
II. Key Drivers Fueling the Commercial Construction Boom
Several fundamental factors are contributing to the current robust state of Ontario's commercial construction sector. These drivers are creating sustained demand for a wide range of commercial developments across the province.
A. Population Growth and Urbanization
Ontario has experienced substantial population growth over the past several decades. By 2023, the province's population had reached 15.6 million people, having doubled since 1971 [3]. This significant demographic expansion has created a fundamental need for more infrastructure and buildings of all types. Projections indicate that this population growth is set to continue in the coming years [3]. The increasing number of residents directly translates to a greater demand for various commercial spaces. This includes retail establishments to cater to consumer needs, office buildings to accommodate a growing workforce, industrial facilities to support manufacturing and logistics, and institutional buildings such as schools and hospitals to serve the expanding population. Furthermore, a significant portion of this population growth is concentrated in urban centers, particularly within the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and other census metropolitan areas in Southern Ontario [3]. This trend of urbanization further intensifies the demand for commercial development in these specific geographic regions, as businesses seek to locate where the population density is highest and where infrastructure can support their operations. Long-term projections from Ontario's Long-Term Report on the Economy anticipate the province's population reaching 21.7 million by 2046 [3]. Notably, a substantial portion of this future growth is expected to be concentrated within the GTA and Southern Ontario. The GTA's population alone is projected to increase by 41% between 2023 and 2046, reaching 10.5 million residents [3]. Central Ontario is also expected to experience rapid growth at 43% during this period [3]. These long-term demographic trends underscore the sustained need for commercial construction in Ontario for the foreseeable future. Businesses can anticipate continued opportunities for expansion and development to serve this growing population, especially within the rapidly expanding urban centers.B. Non-Residential Sector Dominance
The non-residential sector of Ontario's construction industry is playing a pivotal role in the current boom. In January 2025, investment in this sector grew by 0.8%, reaching a total of $6.7 billion [1]. This represents a significant portion of the overall construction investment in the province. Within the non-residential sector, industrial and institutional projects are demonstrating particular strength. Investment in industrial projects in Ontario reached $1.5 billion in January 2025, while institutional projects saw an investment of $2.0 billion during the same period [1]. The robust investment in industrial projects suggests a growing need for facilities related to manufacturing, warehousing, and logistics. This demand could be linked to the ongoing expansion of e-commerce, the need for more resilient supply chains, and potential reshoring of manufacturing activities. The substantial investment in institutional projects indicates continued government commitment to developing and upgrading public infrastructure such as schools, hospitals, and other essential services to meet the needs of the growing population. Additionally, the commercial component of the non-residential sector also experienced growth in Ontario in January 2025, with an increase of $16.3 million [1]. This increase in investment in commercial buildings, which includes retail outlets, office spaces, and other service-oriented facilities, aligns with the population growth and urbanization trends. As more people live and work in urban areas, there is a corresponding need for more commercial spaces to serve their needs and facilitate economic activity.
Sector | Investment Value (in billions of dollars) | Monthly Change (%) |
---|---|---|
Industrial | $1.5 | +1.5% |
Institutional | $2.0 | +1.9% |
Commercial | $3.3 | +0.5% |
This table provides a clear breakdown of the investment within the non-residential sector in Ontario for January 2025. It highlights that while all three sub-sectors experienced growth, the institutional and industrial components saw the most significant increases in investment value and monthly growth rates. This underscores the importance of these sectors in driving the overall commercial construction boom in the province.
C. Rebounding Residential Market While the primary focus of this report is on the commercial construction sector, developments in the residential market can have indirect but significant implications. In Ontario, multi-family residential construction experienced a notable surge in January 2025, with investment increasing by $421 million [1]. This significant rise in the construction of apartments, condominiums, and other multi-unit dwellings reflects a broader trend towards increasing urban density. This shift is likely influenced by provincial housing initiatives aimed at addressing the ongoing housing shortage by encouraging the development of more units within existing urban footprints. Additionally, affordability concerns are likely driving more people to consider multi-family housing options. While not directly commercial construction, this increase in residential density can create substantial demand for supporting commercial infrastructure in the areas where these new residential units are being built. Residents of these new developments will require access to retail stores, restaurants, services, and other commercial amenities in their vicinity, thus creating opportunities for further commercial construction in these areas.
III. Mississauga: A Focal Point of Commercial Opportunity
Within the thriving Ontario construction landscape, the City of Mississauga stands out as a particularly dynamic center for commercial development. Several factors contribute to Mississauga's prominence in this sector.
A. Strategic Location and Infrastructure Investments
Mississauga's strategic location within the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) positions it as a key economic hub in Canada. Its proximity to major transportation networks, including an extensive network of highways such as the 401, 403, and 407, provides excellent connectivity for businesses involved in logistics and distribution [5]. Furthermore, Mississauga is home to Toronto Pearson International Airport, Canada's largest and busiest airport, facilitating both passenger and cargo movement [5]. This unparalleled access to transportation infrastructure makes Mississauga an attractive location for businesses operating regionally, nationally, and internationally. The city has also made significant and ongoing investments in its own infrastructure, including road improvements, public transit expansions, and utility upgrades [5]. These investments further enhance Mississauga's appeal for commercial development by ensuring that businesses have access to the necessary infrastructure to support their operations and growth. The city's commitment to building a modern and efficient infrastructure network underscores its dedication to fostering a thriving business environment.B. Trade Component Growth and Logistics Hubs
As previously noted, Ontario experienced a $16.3 million increase in the commercial component of construction investment in January 2025 [1]. Given Mississauga's pivotal role within the GTA as a major center for trade and logistics, it is highly likely that a significant portion of this growth is concentrated within the city. The demand for retail complexes to serve Mississauga's growing population and logistics hubs to facilitate the movement of goods through the region is on the rise, driven by factors such as e-commerce and international trade. A tangible example of this trend is CanFirst Capital Management's recent groundbreaking on a 272,379-square-foot industrial building in Mississauga [7]. This is a speculative project, meaning it is being built without a tenant already secured, indicating the developer's strong belief in the market demand for high-quality industrial space in the area. The project is targeting LEED Gold certification and is being built to be net-zero ready, reflecting a growing emphasis on sustainability in commercial development [7]. This initiative highlights the confidence in Mississauga as a prime location for modern logistics and industrial operations. Further demonstrating Mississauga's commitment to long-term sustainable development is the ambitious new district energy project underway at Lakeview Village [8]. This innovative project aims to create one of the most sustainable new waterfront communities in Canada by implementing a centralized system for heating and cooling the entire community, potentially utilizing treated wastewater as a low-carbon energy source [8]. This forward-thinking approach to infrastructure development not only enhances the environmental sustainability of Lakeview Village but also makes it an attractive location for businesses and residents who prioritize environmental considerations.C. GTA Employment Trends in Construction
The outlook for construction employment within the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), which includes Mississauga, remains positive in the medium term. Projections indicate steady growth in construction employment through 2028, with a slight contraction anticipated in the years following [9]. However, despite this later moderation, overall employment levels are expected to remain elevated, signifying continued strong demand for labor in the construction sector. More specifically, non-residential construction employment in the GTA is projected to increase by 14% by the year 2033, while residential construction employment is expected to grow by 4% during the same period [10]. This differential growth rate highlights the anticipated long-term strength of the commercial and institutional sectors within the GTA's construction market. The fact that non-residential employment, which encompasses commercial construction, is expected to see more significant growth over the next decade underscores the continued opportunities and demand for commercial development in the region, including Mississauga. This sustained need for a skilled workforce further reinforces the idea that the commercial construction sector in Mississauga and the broader GTA is poised for continued activity and expansion in the coming years.
Investment in Building Construction (2020 - 2025)
IV. Navigating the Challenges
Despite the current boom and positive outlook, Ontario's commercial construction sector faces several significant challenges that require careful attention and strategic planning.
A. Tariff Threats and Rising Material Costs
A major concern for the construction industry in Ontario is the potential impact of tariffs and the associated rise in material costs. Global trade tensions have led to increased volatility in the prices of key construction materials, squeezing the profit margins of contractors [11]. The potential reimposition of tariffs on Canadian goods, particularly steel and aluminum, by the United States poses a significant threat to the industry [12]. Canada is a major exporter of these materials to the US, and tariffs could make Canadian products less competitive, potentially leading to retaliatory tariffs from Canada on US imports [11]. This back-and-forth imposition of duties could significantly increase the cost of essential construction materials like steel beams, aluminum frames, and even lumber [16]. Ontario contractors rely heavily on cross-border supply chains, making them particularly vulnerable to such trade disruptions [18]. Increased material costs can lead to budget overruns, project delays, and potentially even the cancellation of projects that become financially unviable [16]. The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies can also make it difficult for contractors to accurately bid on projects and manage their costs effectively [20]. Historical examples, such as the US tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber in the past, have demonstrated the potential for significant price increases and disruptions in the construction market [17]. The interconnectedness of the US and Canadian economies means that tariffs can have ripple effects, potentially weakening the Canadian dollar and further increasing the cost of imported materials and equipment [11].B. Labor Shortages in the Skilled Trades
Another persistent challenge facing Ontario's commercial construction sector is the shortage of skilled labor. Over 60% of contractors in the province identify the lack of skilled tradespeople as a primary concern [21]. This issue has been a long-standing one in the industry and is exacerbated by factors such as an aging workforce, where many experienced tradespeople are nearing retirement, and a need to attract more young people to pursue careers in the skilled trades [23]. The high demand for construction services across various sectors further intensifies the competition for available skilled workers [24]. This shortage can lead to project delays as contractors struggle to find enough qualified workers to complete tasks on schedule [21]. It can also drive up labor costs, as contractors may need to offer higher wages to attract and retain the necessary workforce, impacting project budgets [21]. Furthermore, there are concerns that labor shortages could potentially lead to a decline in the quality of work if less experienced or less qualified individuals are hired to fill the gaps [21]. The challenge is also compounded by limited interregional mobility of workers within Ontario, meaning that even if skilled workers are available in one part of the province, they may not be easily able or willing to relocate to areas where demand is highest, such as Mississauga [24]. Addressing this labor shortage is crucial for the continued success and growth of the commercial construction sector in Ontario.C. Interest Rate Volatility and Economic Shifts
The broader economic climate and the volatility of interest rates also present challenges for Ontario's commercial construction sector. In 2023, high borrowing costs led to a decline in residential construction activity, although a rebound was anticipated in late 2024 22. While the commercial sector may be somewhat less directly impacted by interest rate fluctuations compared to residential construction, higher borrowing costs can still influence investment decisions and the overall feasibility of large-scale commercial projects [26]. Developers may become more cautious about undertaking new projects if financing becomes significantly more expensive. Furthermore, broader economic shifts, such as potential slowdowns in GDP growth or increased inflation, can impact the demand for commercial spaces 26. If businesses become less confident about the economic outlook, they may reduce their investments in new facilities or expansions, which would directly affect commercial construction activity. However, projections for Ontario's economy in 2025 indicate a real GDP growth of 1.7% and a steady rise in employment [28]. This positive economic outlook could help to mitigate some of the negative impacts of interest rate volatility by fostering a more favorable environment for business investment and expansion, thereby supporting continued demand for commercial construction projects.
V. Data-Backed Insights for Strategic Planning
Analyzing key economic data provides valuable insights for strategic planning within Ontario's commercial construction sector.
A. Constant Dollar Growth
In January 2025, investment in building construction in Ontario, when adjusted for inflation (measured in constant dollars), increased by 1.5% on a monthly basis [1]. This figure is significant because it demonstrates that the growth in the sector is not solely attributable to rising prices of materials and labor. Instead, it indicates a real increase in the volume of construction activity taking place. This suggests a fundamental strength in the market, with more projects moving forward and more construction work being completed. This real growth provides a more accurate gauge of the sector's expansion and its contribution to the overall economy, as it removes the distorting effects of inflation.B. Ontario's Economic Outlook for 2025
The projected economic outlook for Ontario in 2025 remains generally positive. Forecasts indicate a real GDP growth of 1.7% for the province, accompanied by a steady rise in employment [28]. This positive macroeconomic environment typically supports increased demand for commercial spaces. As the economy grows and more people are employed, businesses are more likely to expand their operations, invest in new facilities, and lease additional office or retail space. This, in turn, drives demand for commercial construction projects. The anticipated economic growth provides a favorable backdrop for the continued success and expansion of the commercial construction sector in Ontario.C. Methodology and Caution
Statistics Canada, the primary source of construction investment data, has updated its methodologies to enhance the accuracy of its statistics. The current data series (Table 34-10-0286-01) utilizes improved price indices for calculating constant dollar values 1. This methodological improvement increases the reliability of the data and provides a more accurate picture of real growth in the sector. However, it is important for businesses to remain aware that these statistical estimates are subject to revisions based on late responses, delayed project start dates, methodological changes, and updates to price indices [30]. Therefore, while the data provides valuable insights, businesses should continuously monitor these trends and be prepared for potential adjustments in the figures. Close monitoring of these trends can help businesses to better anticipate market shifts and mitigate potential risks, such as those related to supply chain delays or unexpected changes in investment patterns.
VI. Mitigating Risks and Leveraging Opportunities
To navigate the challenges and capitalize on the opportunities within Ontario's commercial construction boom, businesses can adopt several strategic approaches.
A. Strategies to Address Tariff-Driven Cost Spikes
To mitigate the risks associated with potential tariff increases, construction companies should consider incorporating change-in-law clauses into their contracts, allowing for adjustments to project costs if new tariffs are imposed [18]. Price escalation clauses can also help to protect against unexpected increases in material costs [18]. Diversifying supply chains by exploring alternative suppliers, including domestic options, can reduce reliance on imports that may be subject to tariffs [18]. Strategic procurement practices, such as making bulk purchases of key materials or negotiating forward contracts, can help to lock in prices and hedge against future increases 18. When submitting bids, contractors should clearly qualify their pricing to account for potential tariff adjustments [18]. Exploring the use of alternative materials or innovative construction techniques that are less reliant on tariff-sensitive imports can also be a proactive strategy [17]. Building strong relationships with suppliers and subcontractors can foster better communication and collaboration in managing tariff-related challenges [18]. Finally, maintaining open and transparent communication with clients about potential tariff impacts on project costs and timelines is crucial for managing expectations and finding collaborative solutions [18].B. Approaches to Tackle Labor Shortages
Addressing the skilled labor shortage requires a multi-faceted approach. Investing in and expanding workforce training and apprenticeship programs is essential for developing a sustainable pipeline of skilled workers [34]. Actively recruiting and retaining skilled tradespeople by offering competitive compensation packages and opportunities for professional growth is also critical [24]. Exploring and supporting immigration strategies that facilitate the entry of qualified construction workers into Ontario can help to bolster the labor supply [24]. Efforts to improve the interregional mobility of workers within the province can help to match available labor with project demands in different areas [24]. Promoting careers in the skilled trades to younger generations through educational outreach and awareness campaigns is vital for ensuring the future workforce of the industry [24]. Finally, leveraging technology and automation in construction processes can improve efficiency and potentially reduce the reliance on manual labor for certain tasks [33].C. Capitalizing on Long-Term Infrastructure and Commercial Development Plans in Mississauga
Businesses looking to leverage the opportunities in Mississauga's commercial construction sector should be aware of the city's long-term plans. Mississauga's commitment to reducing development charges for new housing and commercial spaces makes it an increasingly attractive location for investment [37]. Major infrastructure projects, such as the district energy system at Lakeview Village, present opportunities for companies specializing in sustainable development and energy solutions [8]. The presence of speculative industrial developments indicates market confidence and potential demand for logistics and warehousing facilities [7]. Ongoing road and transit infrastructure plans, including the Transit and Road Infrastructure Plan (TRIP), Dundas Connects, and the Hurontario LRT, will create numerous construction opportunities [5]. The City's Official Plan provides a framework for guiding growth towards strategic areas, offering clarity for developers and investors [41]. Additionally, long-term care development programs are underway to address the needs of an aging population, creating opportunities in the healthcare infrastructure sector [42].
VII. Conclusion
Ontario's commercial construction sector, with Mississauga as a significant hub, is currently experiencing a period of robust growth and resilience, defying potential economic headwinds and tariff challenges. This expansion is primarily driven by sustained population growth and a strong non-residential sector, particularly in industrial and institutional projects. While the sector faces ongoing challenges related to potential tariff impacts, persistent labor shortages in skilled trades, and the uncertainties of interest rate volatility and broader economic shifts, the data indicates continued real growth and a positive economic outlook for the province in 2025. To navigate these challenges and fully capitalize on the significant opportunities available, particularly in a dynamic market like Mississauga, businesses must adopt proactive and strategic approaches. This includes implementing measures to mitigate tariff-related cost increases, addressing labor shortages through workforce development and recruitment initiatives, and aligning their strategies with the long-term infrastructure and commercial development plans of the city. By doing so, stakeholders in Ontario's commercial construction sector can ensure continued success and contribute to the province's economic prosperity.
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